MAYER MAJOR AS Q4 BATTLE BEGINS IN EARNEST

The fourth quarter sprint to the end of the first decade of the 21st century (and what a decade it was) begins in earnest this week and, for battered music retailers, it couldn’t come a moment to soon.

Columbia’s singer/songwriter, full-time Tweeter and tabloid lothario will bow on top next week as his Battle Studies rustles up 275-300k in sales, almost twice as much as his nearest pursuer, according to one-day reports from those hearty few still selling shiny, round discs in their stores instead of flat screen TVs.

Blue Note chanteuse Norah Jones’ The Fall is the next-highest debut at 150-160k, putting her in a four-way logjam with Aftermath/Interscope rapper 50 Cent’s Before I Self-Destruct, also in its first week, Provident/Reunion Christian act Casting Crowns and Decca’s Andrea Bocelli, all in the 140-150k range.

Island/IDJ teen phenom Justin Bieber appears to be poised to debut in the 110-120k neighborhood, a pleasant surprise which L.A. Reid and company have to be delighted with.

19/Jive/JLG American Idol winner Kris Allen’s debut should be between 85-90k, which will make for an interesting comparison when runner-up Adam Lambert’s album drops on Nov. 23.

DGC/Interscope rock gods Them Crooked Vultures, featuring Queens of the Stone Age’s Josh Homme, Foo Fighters’ Dave Grohl and Led Zep’s John Paul Jones, are on target for a total of 70-75k for their bracing, neo-psychedelic blooze-metal mash-up.

J/RMG X Factor winner Leona Lewis’ sophomore album, Echo, should do between 60-65k.

Paul McCartney’s Hear Music/Concord live DVD/CD, Good Evening New York City, is in the 50-55k area, while Interscope act OneRepublic’s Waking Up will arise with 40-45k and Janet Jackson’s A&M greatest hits album looks on track for 35-40k.

The market was up 3% vs. last week, down 21% vs. same week last year and still down 13% year to date. Is it 2010 yet?