I.B. BAD CAREFULLY SLICES UP THE MARKETSHARE PIE

SWEETENING THE POT? On the EMI-WMG front, the British company is rumored to be increasing its original offer by between $1.50 and $3.50 a share to a possible $32, bringing the total proposal potentially to $4.75 billion. Meanwhile, Edgar Bronfman Jr. is said to be frantically trying to round up new equity players, reportedly traveling as far away as Dubai and Russia in his search, in order to come up with an amount greater than EMI's offer in order to buy out the other investors and hold on to WMG. Most believe his chances of pulling off such a coup are slim to none—meaning that he may soon be out of a job. History could play a part in determining how Bronfman winds up. When he acquired PolyGram in 1998, current EMI Music chief/then-PolyGram ruler Alain Levy was offered—and rejected—a greatly diminished role in the combined companies, so most expect that Bronfman will similarly have a greatly diminished role in WEMI world, if he has a role at all. Speaking of which, Lyor Cohen’s history with the current EMI management team begs the question: what will become of him when WMG changes hands? It has become apparent to practically everyone in the music business that Cohen isn't equipped to run a music group, though most believe he could return to heading up a hip-hop label. But sources inside EMI say there may be no place in the EMI hierarchy for someone with such questionable judgment, and one so prone to flying off the handle… Following EMI's acquisition of WMG, Warner/Chappell Music will quickly be sold off, and the publisher is being affected adversely by the current uncertainty. People working at WCM say they feel like lame ducks as they play the waiting game, and revenues uncharacteristically took a nosedive in WMG's fiscal first quarter. Nonetheless, virtually every investment banker and rival publisher is salivating at the prospect of picking up the perennial #2 company in the last bastion of economic hope in the traditional music business. Additionally, it's quite likely that BMG Songs, another of the top five publishing companies, will be on the block as well some time in the next few months. Charles Koppelman and outgoing EMI Music Publishing czar Marty Bandier have both enjoyed great entrepreneurial success with previous publishing ventures, and either or both could conceivably gather their resources to make a play for one of these companies. Expect major action in this sector… The marketshare report on the first four months of 2006 (see story) confirms that Doug Morris’ UMG, at 31.8% in new releases, remains far and away the biggest of the Big Four, but there are a couple of surprises in the figures that have been gathered. At the beginning of the year, no self-respecting industry watcher would have predicted that Disney's Buena Vista Music Group (distributed but not owned by UMG), capably run by Bob Cavallo, would come out of nowhere to rack up the two best-selling albums of 2006 to date with #1 High School Musical and #2 Rascal Flatts. Conversely, few expected that powerful Interscope would lose nearly half its marketshare, plummeting from 10.5% to 5.5% so far in '06...but the situation is temporary. While this is a precipitous drop considering that Interscope was coming off the two biggest years in its history, bear in mind that the label’s early-2005 performance was paced by blockbusters from The Game and 50 Cent. Interscope’s current A&R star is Ron Fair, whose contributions to hits from the Black Eyed Peas, the Pussycat Dolls and Keyshia Cole, as well as Geffen's Mary J. Blige (who's #3 on the year), make it obvious why Jimmy Iovine has greatly expanded his responsibilities. The label is expecting new albums from The Game, Fergie and Will.i.am, with No Doubt, 50 Cent and Eminem possible as well… Pacing UMG so far this year is L.A. Reid’s IDJ, with an industry-topping 6.5% share... Sony BMG (23.9% year-to-date) will have no competition for second place until WEMI becomes a reality, but the group's marketshare has been heading downward ever since the companies merged two years ago. Wonderers wonder whether internal turmoil has contributed to the decline or the decline has contributed to the turmoil. Either way, it appears that the resolution of Andygate with the ascension of Rolf Schmidt-Holtz to the throne of the merged companies has not ended the acrimony between BMG and Sony Music, as the barbs continue to pop up in the press. But through it all, Clive Davis soldiers on, with three of the year's Top 10 albums in Carrie Underwood, Jamie Foxx and Barry Manilow. Meanwhile, on the Sony side of the street, Columbia will get a big boost from the Dixie Chicks, John Legend, Beyonce, John Mayer and Jessica Simpson, while Epic is developing Shakira and The Fray, with Audioslave, Incubus and Los Lonely Boys on deck… Looking at the year's top sellers, it's readily apparent that adult and country titles are on the upsurge, while rock remains depressed—providing additional ammunition for those who insist that CD burning and illegal file sharing are at the root of the music industry's malaise… Names in the Rumor Mill: Scott Sperling, Eric Nicoli, Richard Blackstone, Roger Ames, Tommy Mottola, Puffy and Steve Greenberg.