CARRIE THAT WEIGHT

Arista’s American Idol and Grammy Best New Artist winner Carrie Underwood kicks the fourth quarter into moderate gear with a first-week total that is looking between 400-450k, more than enough to thrust her into the top spot on the next HITS Album chart.

Rounder’s odd couple of bluegrass diva Alison Krauss and Led Zeppelin frontman Robert Plant on the album Raising Sand, is good enough for #2 with a total that appears headed for between 80-90k. The unlikely pairing was produced by Grammy winner T Bone Burnett.

Hard-living country troubadour Gary Allan’s aptly named new MCA Nashville album, Living Hard, is showing some nice strength, good enough for a bow between 70-75k.

Columbia prog-art-rockers Coheed and Cambria are up next, looking good for a Top 5 debut with the latest in their on-going sci-fi saga, No World for Tomorrow, which could rustle up 60-65k.

System of a Down vocalist Serj Tankian makes his Reprise solo debut with 50-55k for Elect the Dead.

Wind-up South African rockers Seether are at 50k, give or take, for their new album, Finding Beauty in Negative Spaces.

Colombian Latin Grammy winner Juanes is back with his Spanish-language La Vida… Es Un Ratico, on Universal Music Latino, which could trend at 50-55k, with an expected bump from Puerto Rican sales.

Reprise legend Neil Young’s epic Chrome Dreams II is in the 40-50k range, while J Records emo conceptualists Say Anything’s double-CD In Defense of the Genre, could rustle up between 25-30k.

Meanwhile, the market was down nearly 5% vs. last week, down 20% vs same week last year and now down 14.4% year-to-date. Yeeesh.

Next week, your trick and treat bag will be filled with The Eagles, Britney Spears, Backstreet Boys and Josh Turner.