JAY-Z LEADS THREE-WAY RACE

Jay-Z’s Roc-A-Fella/IDJ album American Gangster, his tribute to the Ridley Scott movie of the same name about legendary Harlem dope dealer Frank Lucas with an Oscar-worthy performance by Denzel Washington, looks like a pretty good shot to take the #1 spot on next week’s HITS Top 50.

According to retailers left around this great country of ours, he’s on track to sell between 400-450k. Judging how the Eagles do in their second week—and they will be performing on ABC’s nationally televised Country Music Awards tonight, so you never know—will determine next week’s #1.

Barry Weiss’ Team Jive continues its hot streak with the new Chris Brown album, Exclusive, with the smash single, “Kiss Kiss,” which appears headed for at the very least the Top Three and maybe even higher with between 300-350k.

The independently distribbed Garth Brooks album Ultimate Hits on Scott Borchetta’s Pearl Records imprint looks like it will do between 200-250k, though the CMAs could boost that number significantly.

Rapper Cassidy’s B.A.R.S. The Barry Adrian Reese Story, his new Full Surface/Ruff Ryders/J album, is on target for 70-80k.

Suretone/Geffen’s Angels and Airwaves, the band headed by blink-182 guitarist/vocalist Tom DeLonge, is looking at 65-75k for its second album, I-Empire.

Thanks in large part to the Eagles, the market was up 11% vs last week, down 13% vs same week last year and now down 14.5% year-to-date.