ONE-DAY SALES: RATED R.

According to the conventional wisdom, you don’t put out superstar records right after a big summer holiday weekend like the Fourth of July… On the other hand, the conventional wisdom hasn’t applied to the contemporary music biz since, oh, 1999, so ignoring it tends to be, um, wiser these days.

That’s what Jive/ZLG has done with R. Kelly’s TP.3 Reloaded, and the gambit is going down like gangbusters, as the lascivious crooner pants his way toward a first-week total in the neighborhood of 550k, with a shot at 600k. OK, it hasn’t hurt that the five-chapter serial “Trapped in the Closet” has generated tremendous interest, or that he’s been #1 Urban while generating massive crossover action. In any case, we’re looking at one of 2005’s bigger bows right here, folks. Obviously, Kelly is running away with the competition (not that there is any) for the top spot on next week’s album chart.

Looking at the week’s other six-figure debut is the reliable Missy Elliott (Elektra/Atlantic), who will once again get her freak on as she works it toward a total north of 150k.

The only other noteworthy debut to hit stores yesterday was Webbie, the latest Houston rapper to have an album released through Asylum—in this case Trill/Asylum. At the moment, the album is trending below expectations at 50k-60k, but this is one of the more unpredictable subgenres, so don’t put any serious money on that number.

Moving to the weekly one-step-forward/one-step-back dept., business was up 6.6% over the previous week (10.9 million units compared to 10.2 million), and down 2.7% from the same week last year (11.2 million). Year to date, the music industry is off 7.56% compared to 2004 (282.6 million vs. 305.72 million).