ONE-DAY SALES:
HIS EMINEMCE RETURNS

We were prepared to celebrate the biggest debut of a heretofore blah fourth quarter, but that ain’t gonna happen, kiddies. Instead, it appears that Eminem’s greatest-hits collection, Curtain Call (Shady/Aftermath/Interscope) will finish up in the neighborhood of 350k, which should be enough for #1 next week, but not nearly enough to party like it’s 1999.

And now for the all-important disclaimer: Because (a) we’re talking about a bona fide superstar, (b) this is a collection of smashes and (c) we’re in the middle of the holiday gift-giving season, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see the momentum on this puppy pick up considerably by Sunday evening.

There’s no equivocating needed when discussing Lil’ Wayne, whose new album, on Cash Money/Universal, is cruising toward an impressive 225k-250k, as the young rapper (at least we think he’s young; maybe he’s just lil’) parlays his Destiny’s Child association and New Orleans heritage into what is starting to look like a breakthrough. (Note: Lil' Wayne is not to be confused with the L.A. Dodgers' newly named manager, Grady Lil'.)

Preliminary evidence on Korn—and by association on its unconventional, revenue-sharing deal with EMI, is positive if circumstantial, as the veteran band’s rabid fan base swarms on retail and gives the Virgin LP the appearance on a bow in the 200k-210k range. But it’s the very fervor of these fans that’s in question here; in essence, does this early action mean that sales on the album will turn out to be heavily front-loaded? We’ll know the answer in a few days.

The fourth and final noteworthy debut of the week is from Universal’s teen-queen candidate, Lindsey Lohan. At first glance, the number appears to be south of 100k, but we’ll employ a variation on the above disclaimer to say that anything can happen during holiday season, especially with a high-profile artist.

That’s enough hedging for the moment. Now on to the big picture…

While it isn’t that troubling that weekly album sales were down 8.7%, or 1.5 million units, from Thanksgiving week, the fact that business was off a sizable 12.9%, or 2.3 million, compared to the same week of 2004, is sobering indeed. The weekly total of 15.5 million pieces brings the year-to-date tally to 524.9 million, exactly 10% below last year. Ho, ho, ho.